Elon Musk said Tesla’s self-driving will start contributing to the company’s profits… wait for it… “next year” with “millions of Tesla robotaxis in operation during the second half of the year.”
The claim has become a running joke, as he has made it for the last decade.
During Tesla’s conference call following the release of its Q1 2025 financial results, Musk updated shareholders about Tesla’s self-driving plans, which he again presented as critical to the company’s future.
He made a series of claims, mainly updating timelines about Tesla’s self-driving efforts.
Here are the main comments:
- The CEO reiterated that Tesla will launch its paid autonomous ride-sharing service in Austin in June.
- He did clarify that the fleet will consist of Model Y vehicles and not the new Cybercab.
- Musk also confirmed that Tesla is currently training a fleet specifically for Austin.
- As we previously reported, this internal ride-hailing fleet operating in a geo-fenced with teleoperation assist is a big change from Tesla’s approach.
- Musk said “10 to 20 vehicles” on day one.
- Musk said that Tesla’s self-driving will start contributing positively to the company financially in the middle of next year, and “There will be millions of Teslas operating autonomously in the second half of next year.”
- Musk has literally said something similar every year for the past decade and therefore, it’s hard to take him seriously.
- The CEO claimed that Tesla would get “a 90-something percentage market share” in the autonomous market.
- Musk again claimed that no one else is getting close to Tesla’s capacity, and he criticized Waymo for being too expensive.
- Musk is “confident” that the first Model Y will drive itself from the factory to a customer’s home later this year.
- The CEO said that he is confident that Tesla will deliver “unsupervised full self-driving” in consumer vehicles by the end of the year.
Despite Tesla missing earnings expectations by a wide margin, the company’s stock rose 4% in after-hours trading following Musk’s comments, indicating that shareholders still believe Musk’s self-driving predictions, despite his predictions having been incorrect for almost a decade.
Electrek’s Take
The first point I believe will happen. Tesla needs it to happen. It badly needs a win on the self-driving front.
However, as we previously explained, while Tesla will claim a win in June, it will be with a limited geo-fenced and teleoperation-assisted system that won’t scale to customer vehicles, which is what has been promised for years.
Top comment by Spec9
The current Model Y without LIDAR operating in Austin in June? Not buying it. It will be delayed, or HIGHLY constrained (only allowed on some designated roads), or largely run by teleoperators, or it will have several accidents, or it will often just stop when it gets confused, etc.
FSD just isn't ready for unsupervised operation. Some bad lane markings, construction zones, irrational behavior by other human drivers, interactions with wildlife, road debris, bad weather, or other little nuances are going to cause problems.
Tesla was even asked how it plans to launch this in Austin in June, when FSD in consumer vehicles currently requires frequent interventions from drivers, and Ashok, Tesla’s head of autonomous driving, admitted his team is currently focused on solving the intervention specifically related to driving in Austin.
With training on specific Austin routes and using teleoperations, Tesla can make that happen, but the road between that and unsupervised self-driving in consumer vehicles and “million of Tesla robotaxis” in the second of next year is a long one.
Basically, other than the first point, I believe Tesla will not achieve any of the other on anything close to the timelines announced by Musk today.
I’m willing to take bets on that.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Comments